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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

US weather outloook to April 10

Basically a continuation of the current pattern...quite cool in the east - especially the NE - for the next 3 or 4 days followed by an ongoing very gradual moderation in temperatures that nevertheless remain below average every day through April 10th.

The cool pattern will stretch west into the Dakotas during the latter part of the first week of April with a block north of 40 degrees N latitude from the eastern Montana border to New England all below to well below normal.

Above normal temperatures are expected to develop this week over the southern Rocky mountain states and So Cal with So Cal high's reaching the mid to upper 80's just inland by Thursday, followed by a return to more seasonable temperatures through the weekend. Also warmer than normal will be west Texas and southern Louisiana. Elsewhere, near normal tempertures are expected through the period.

Given persistently cool conditions in the consuming areas of the NE and upper midwest, I expect natural gas net injections to be delayed until after mid April with net drawdowns to continue until at least that point.