Welcome to the TFC Commodity Trading Forum.
Please feel welcome to join in on these informative ongoing discussions about trading futures and commodities.

The Trading Forum is intended for the open discussion of commodities trading. The management of this Forum does not agree or disagree with the ideas exchanged, and does not exert editorial control over the message posted herein. Read and post at your own risk. The risk of loss in trading or commodities can be substantial. We discourage the use of this Forum to promote trading that is acknowledged to be risky. Please note: many links from the Forum lead to pages on other web sites. We cannot take responsibility for nor endorse the information presented on those sites.

TFC Commodity Trading Forum

The New Bull Thesis for Currencies *PIC*

Trading from a thesis can be a great advantage, if it is correct. All traders have a thesis whether they know it or now. While they may not have articulated it, they have an internal believe system which has a powerful affect on how they trade. My own overriding thesis is identify a predominantly bullish (or bearish) market environment and buy dips and otherwise take buy signals (or sell rallies and otherwise take sell signals). I also always focus on asset class markets because it is significant that they receive a regular bid based on production and business. No matter if business is slowing or growing the majority of companies will make their payroll, and it is the savings component of that regular flow of funds into global economies that insures a constant bid for asset class markets. In addition to the regular flow of income, interest, and earnings, there are times in the global business cycle where asset class markets shift momentum, and move from providing longs with not just the interest rate, or dividend they deliver, but rewarding them with an accelerated appreciation of the asset itself, i.e.: rising prices. Based on our analysis, AUDJPY, and AUDUSD are currently such markets.

This will be particularly interesting to currency traders because of the margin Forex markets provide. Experienced investors and traders will likely do well to monitor the Aussie pairs for price dips which could prove opportunities to either add to existing longs, or initiate new longs. An advantage for investors taking positions in these currencies rather than opting for precious metals and other commodities is the currency markets will be much less volatile than the commodities – definitely a major consideration for pension funds and retail investors — and that technically commodities are not asset class markets in that they do not earn interest – in fact there is a cost of carry to them – while AUDUSD pays you interest in your Forex account, commodities do not; in fact unless you want to take physical delivery of a commodity and guard it yourself, you have to pay interest to store it.

Going forward we all may want to take a hard look at buying dips and otherwise taking buy signals in the Aussie pairs.

Messages In This Thread

The New Bull Thesis for Currencies *PIC*