According to stats the Aussie Dollar has risen from April 3rd to April 13th in 13 of the last 15 years for an accuracy rate of 87%. Seems to be the 'sweet spot' for AD in this time frame. And NO there is no guarantee with it. A contrarian would say 'wait a minute' it's due to be wrong this time and short the crap out of it,lol. But I guess that's what makes a market.