Re: Thurs. Ng Stocks Report Update/Hal ++/Ceejay
Hi Ceejay,
Your post for reference:
"I expect next week's storage report to be at or near expected seasonal values and the week after to be below seasonal. Hard to guess precisely what the short-term effect on prices will be but i'm thinking up. For what its worth... I did a lot of buying thursday morning."
You know how this started. I have a lot of respect for Hal and many others. This is an honest attempt to track this Ng market, learn what to track/look at, when, etc. ....
The "weather effect" short term has always been an issue of contention. I'm sure it is buried in there !!
I posted the consumption (monthly figures) best I could find, clearly the heating/cooling plays a big role.
- but this data is long delayed and not driving what happens on Thursday morning.
There is a lot going on with "Platts".
There is a lot going on with that Thursday report.
What do the "producers" use/do to control/decide/regulate their production for the week ??? This is where your "near term" weather likely factors in.
Would like to try to tie your weather reports to the Thursday report, but this requires matching your weather forecasts to to the prior week (have to pin down dates, and prior week may not be correct). Would want to tie your weather to what the producers use to decide what to input to the "build number". They can't store it, once they pump/bring it up, it goes into the pipe and into storage as best I can sort it out.
Anyway, this gets more interesting with every turn in the road.
Sorry your Thurs. am. buys didn't work out, but that sort of thing is what really got me into this. I allow Ng did go up today, but that "seasonal chart" still exists and should not be totally ignored. I clearly allow "how low can Ng go" ??? Had a number in mind this morning, 4.15 or so and it bounced up, but 4 is a real possibility from the charts, and there is a lot of time left on the "seasonal charts downtrend" !!! So .......
Let me know on thoughts, especially trying to key/tie your weather forecasts to the build input of the report that the producers would have to be looking at.
Thanks, Lee