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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Fed Said? Market Did? *LINK* *PIC*

BS"D

Good morning,

Tuesday taped another day of monster profits (+/-76 points), or
at least excellent profits (+/-34 points), for the more meek.

The BBs have followed Pivot Point methods, and the market has
been very kind to us, but remember, the giant ABS can just as
easily take it all back if we get cocky or caught wrong-footed.
Rely on PMT Money Management rules.

Enjoy and be well,

DAILY PIVOT MAGIC TRADING JOURNAL - EXCERPT

******************************
"Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some
good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it.
If it don't go up, don't buy it."
Will Rogers

******************************

E-mini ES U1
Tuesday August 09, 2011

1 = Tuesday opens gap-up with a high-Volume Anomaly (Overnight, bottom left chart).
Aggressive entry as Price Action rips through the Pivot.

A = Large red Bear Dragonfly retests and kicks off. Best we can do (the signs imply a
bloated ABS again today so we prefer aggressive stop movement) is to move the stop to
Free Trade and a tik.

B = DVS (pink arrow) pumps a giant red candle through the MA. The position is in
violation of Maximum Profit Giveback (MPG) rules. Mental stop at Giveback Level.
More aggressive choice might be to creatively move the stop above the MA, BTW.

Exit on the next (white) candle +/- 9.50 points

2 = Clean "P" Signal off the MA qualifies as an "S" signal. Volume confirms (pink
arrow). We like this position-Reversal.

C = Pulled in on large white candle. Aggressive stop rules suggest moving the stop to
Free Trade and a few tiks at the close of the candle.

NOTE: ABS is now clearly bloated. Adjust exit, stop,
and MPG placements to the extent of your personal pain
threshold.

D = Large white candle through the Pivot. Per PMT stop rules, move the profit-locking
stop under the Pivot.

E = Large white candle. Per our rules, move the profit-locking stop under the low of
the candle/MPG Giveback Level.

We exit somewhere over the next 4 candles. +/- 12.75 points

Price Action turns sideways, and Volume completely dries up in preparation for the
FOMC statement.

F = Interestingly, the Price Action shoots north on the non-news, and on non-Volume.
Finally, Volume reaches hysteria levels, and the Price Action swings vigorously south,
and continues swinging until the Price Action rips finally through the Close and reaches
equilibrium.

3 = DVS-based 2-bar is not to be trusted for longevity. We wait.

4 = Very large white Bull Dragonfly completes the 123 "S" Signal and we prepare to enter.

G = Volume is still strong (pink arrow), and we are pulled in on a giant white candle to
the Pivot. The position is immediately in MPG violation. Mental stop at Giveback Level
has us doubly prepared in case Resistance at the Pivot holds.

H = Twin Towers (unmarked) and a large white candle with an elongated top wick crosses the
Pivot. With a stall twice indicated, we hesitate to add contracts on this 2-candle 123.
Stop moves under the Pivot.

INTERESTING CONUNDRUM:
Advanced traders note that there is nothing to gain by
slow Cancel-Replace exiting (+/-12 points if you do exit)
rather than waiting for the stop to get hit.

Price Action repeatedly fails to cross below the Pivot and advanced traders wind up
holding our positions for a free ride on the EOD Hiccup, and lots of profits.

L = Large white candle through the Mid. Per our stop rules, move the profit-locking stop
under the Mid.

K = Large white candle taps on the R1. Position is in MPG violation. Mental stop at
Giveback Level also protects in case the R1 Resistance holds.

L = Just barely large (6.75-point) white candle noses through the R1. Volume is still
strong, and our stop rules say to move the profit-locking stop under the R1.

N = Volume goes wild, as the last positions are offloaded, driving Price Action easily
through the LowW. Normal stop placement leaves the position in MPG violation. Mental
stop at Giveback Level.

P = Large white candle. Again, normal stop placement leaves the position in MPG violation.
We consider a mental stop at Giveback Level; however, the Twin Towers indicates a stall,
and our rules say we must close out our positions in the next few minutes anyway.
Advanced traders exit (+/-53.75 points), the rest of us are less decisive and exit as the
next candle tapes a mid-air Reversal. (+/-50.75 points)

PERSPECTIVE
(Daily, bottom right chart)

No idea how such a vague action by the Fed generated a
large white day candle on Tuesday, but there it is!
Market is still very wild and scary. Profits are enormous,
but Loses may likewise be devastating. Continue to take
a very aggressive trading stance, and pay close attention
all the signs and follow our PMT Money Management rules.

BE PREPARED FOR ANYTHING, AND GUARD YOUR FUNDS!

REMEMBER: Trade the Tape, Not my Prognostics!

Asher
=] ;-)>

Tuesday's PMT Chart: