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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: MORE New Contract Highs on Dec Corn/Doc *PIC*

Well unlike most traders I don't buy breakouts as a rule. Breakouts need to 'follow through to the upside" to clear away all those shorts just above the double top that are sitting there getting hit and looking like fresh buying. After price has run up in price and time then I know the breakout was for real and typically price pulls back to the breakout pt for a "TEST". That is where I like to buy just as price tags the breakout pt on the pullback and turns back up again. Notice how that occurred each time on Dec Corn or the Swiss Franc I posted too with the test points being a return to the breakout points being the double tops. And see the failed breakout over the double top in June that gaped up to 720 briefly and plunged after that breaking below the breakout pt. The brief and small breakout was not enough in size to get long and typically failed. That was not a valid breakout with such a small and brief rally. Also notice price came down to the "previous TEST point" rather than having a higher test point. It typically failed at that old test point much like it failed to hold the new breakout pt. So now price has come all the way back up and has broken out again over 720. But price still has to rally up with conviction far enough clear away the shorts and higher than dumb money can run it up to confirm a valid breakout. Then and only then would a pullback to the breakout pt at 720 be a buy at a new TEST area of the breakout point. Until then this could simply be short covering and weak longs kidding themselves.I prefer to buy at support on pullbacks as the price is at a discount and I know exactly where my stop loss should be if the support level fails. But hey,what the hell do I know for sure..........................