The most recent US long range weather model just flip-flopped and is now forecasting a cat 3-4 hurricane in the gulf of mexico...in 10 days. The prior run of the model had the same disturbance curving toward the east over Florida and out to sea. After the model finishes running, graphics are produced but there is a delay of up to 3 hours until official weather charts appear for the longer range. Just when the chart that depicted the new forecast position appeared (became available on-line), the september NG contact jumped about 2%.

Now 10 day forecasts are close to worthless, especially for tropical features. Nevertheless, there is a high probability of a hurricane close to the US mainland in the next 6-10 days (or even 2 huricances) but the the landfall could range from south Texas to Cape Hatteras...or not at all.