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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Oct Nat Gas/Testing Resistance/Sold Off/Lee/CJ

Unlikely Katia could move that far west. The gulf storm (now Tropical Depression 15) as it develops will flatten the Texas ridge but also reinforce the Bermuda High ridge to its east, which will act to deflect Katia more to the north. There are still a lot of variables. The Hurricane center now projects that TD15 will landfall near Cameron, Louisiana, on Saturday evening as a tropical Storm (stronger than a depression but not as strong as a hurricane). I don't have a lot of faith in that forecast (and neither do they) as the steering currents in the atmosphere are weak and I expect TD15 to linger over the gulf for at least 3 days...giving it time to ramp up to a Hurricane. The one high confidence forecast is that much of southern Louisiana is going to get a tremendous amount of rain from this over the next 3 days...up to 20 inches near the coast (and in New Orleans).