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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Jan Nat Gas/Ronbo/Lee

I'm just referring to a bounce with the RSI 21 tagging the very oversoold line which is rare and the tight channel price formed. A bounce to the downtrendline or even to 1st resistance is a good possibility. And the seasonals also fit with a 'bounce' in here into Dec. I wont be bothering with it as it is a counter trend trade. The SPX should bounce back in here also into mid Dec. Price has retraced Fib 61.8% of the Oct 4th low to late Oct high and closed Friday right at that important retracment point of 1157. The cycle low of Oct 4th projects a rally high mid Dec so I still feel that will complete despite ugly looking price action all month. These cycles tend to supersede everything including news and world events. Just look at last Feb when the entire mid east was coming unglued and then the Japanese earthquake an tsunami and the stock market still completed its cycle high Feb 17th right on schedule. So I'll be looking at some long positions in here for awhile. The news media is good at being the tail of the dog and I'm sure will come up and keep up a good 'story' while the market rallies. They are good at that as that's what they do for a living. Gold is also close to its 150ema that price has bounced off of the last 9 times over the last few years too. It could bottom anytime in here now. And DX is not far from a double top and everything inverse will rally on a DX pull back. I don't expect DX to sell off hard again as I expect it to continue it's uptrend but expect it will have sharp pullbacks along the way. Those are my thoughts fwiw.