Well all I know for sure is the bear is still intact without even a channel of consolidation since the July breakdown of the last channel. But I also know even though prices are in a perfect downtrend since then the mentality has reached the point where all this bearishness is due for a sharp kick in the ass. The old saying is "If it's obvious it's obviously wrong." And it is getting very very obvious to be short. Doesn't mean you catch the falling piano or knife but it does mean this is not a time to be adding to shorts without a firm stop loss above your head. I don't accept drawdowns so buying and holding a losing position just isn't acceptable to me unfortunately. And taking countertrend positions have a lousy track record of success so my timing has to be very good when buying a turn around or support level. But I don't think it will be long before the bears get their heads handed to them with present conditions. Short term watch price compared to the 20ema as it will snap back to there or even the downtrendline in the near future if nothing else. That is where to add shorts with a stop above in place. As far as taking a long position at a major multi year low idea it can end up to be a home run trade but the question is always how much of a drawdown is one willing to accept before they throw in the towel and say uncle. No guarantee prices wont reach new lows and then some. Much like a Hail Mary pass. If it works you are a hero. If it fails you are a bum and a loser,lol.