Hi Trades, Rabbit,
Thanks for the charts, comments !!

Some comments on price and 20ema, and Rabbit comment on doing calculations.

At the moment, Feb. Ng is at 2.55. My eyes give me 2.97 for the 20 ema or a 42 cent difference.
If rubber band snapped back in one shot would cost -4209 on full contract or -1059.02 on the emini if you were unable to close with stop above 2.55.

Last contact with 20 ema was on 12/02 about 6 weeks. Longest daily bar in this period was on 1/11 of 18 cents so it looks like something around 18 cents may be a more reasonable estimate of what you might get stuck with if market blew through your stop. [a bit less than half of the above numbers for the 42 cent range].

So as Trades points out, you could get stuck here (at or near 20 ema) and lose the above .

BUTTTTT, I have been waiting for a tag of the 20ema since around 12/20 ....to no avail !!!!

For comparison .... [Full or Emini]
A short on 12/1 [at about 3.69] would be worth about 11709 or 2859 today

A short on 12/22 [at about 3.20] would be worth about 6509 or 1634 today

So, passed up decent gains by being patient and conservative !!!!!!

Will hold off for the storage estimates - should come along tomorrow. Market could pop up this week on a decent draw down, but I doubt it will stay there !!! Report may be delayed with the Holiday - not sure. CeeJay posted some thoughts on the draw down, have to find them.

On Rabbit comment/question:
If bought a full contract at 2 and held to 0 would cost you 20k to ride that swing out.

Thanks, Lee