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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Grain bearish reversal...maybe.

I know you guys hate the funnies..I just thought I would make them clear:

Clearly the grains were not in control today. The index funds were clueless once again....and the bullish news today (indefinite Argentina truck strike...no beans will be shipped) was shrugged off. Since the index funds are clueless...crude oil gave them the only sense of direction. This alone caused the sell-off in corn and beans. The tightness of supply of corn is still a very real issue. Cash prices still remained stable today. Are US corn carry gets lower and lower every year. The USDA guesses 94 million acres will be planted this year. Let me make one thing clear...even if this number is correct (or higher)...we (the US) are STILL 1 drought from running out of corn. 94-96 mil acres (bumper crop) will not be enough to keep up with export demand.So, no matter what the Planting Intension Report says...it will be long term bullish. Export sales for beans and corn have been great considering a seasonal down trend in sales this time of year. Mexico's 70 year drought will continue to fuel demand for corn. I don't think Argentina is going to open the corn exports this year at all. There are far more reasons to stay bullish corn and beans, than bearish. "The Trade" often has a different perception of the grain markets than Wall Street index fund mangers. It is also my opinion that the CFTC needs to regulate their position limits....instead of putting the regulatory ball in the SEC's court.

Hope you all enjoyed my commentary.