Welcome to the TFC Commodity Trading Forum.
Please feel welcome to join in on these informative ongoing discussions about trading futures and commodities.

The Trading Forum is intended for the open discussion of commodities trading. The management of this Forum does not agree or disagree with the ideas exchanged, and does not exert editorial control over the message posted herein. Read and post at your own risk. The risk of loss in trading or commodities can be substantial. We discourage the use of this Forum to promote trading that is acknowledged to be risky. Please note: many links from the Forum lead to pages on other web sites. We cannot take responsibility for nor endorse the information presented on those sites.

TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Monday and Tuesday - Grains.

Here is 'my' most intelligent opinions.

If you look at Soybean Meal , you can see a close above all the previous resistance. This is also a new Year high, which to some would be reason enough for an entry (buy signal)., with a supported trend.

Now if I was selling, I believe I would want to sell Soybeans up near the Top price of $14.50. I can't believe that the sellers have control of the bean market with a recent rise of with a 30 cent gap of price. So I believe the buyers are holding the balance of the market. IT does look Toppy!. Or it looks like if it breaks the most recent highs, around the $14.50 area, then we will have a run away market. (this will be a close above one year highs), Which is a very intense difficult thing to Predict. However, A seller in Beans can easily ask for $14.30 / bushel in Soybeans if Corn is up even 20 cents on monday. And if Corn is up 30 cents, they can ask $14.40. IF we see a second limit day up or a series of limit days, its possible.

Do people here really believe that the market is incapable of doing this. It was down nearly 50 cents in corn, four days prior to a report. Do you really believe that a one day limit move will be a correction with no follow through? The minimum in the next 20 trading days I expect is over $1 up in Corn. Minimum. It could even hit $9 if things get crazy. and It could FALL just as quickly as it went up.

Similarly, If Beans close above $14.56 At anytime, where do the sellers sell at?, $16.00?? or do they immediately sell with everything they've got to keep it bellow that resistant point?

If you come back to me and say, beans looks so toppy, and here is why. Then I will look at that. Following a moving average, as an example.

As an example, Jon B, or whomever he calls himself, the astrological man studying Gann philosophies on market timing. He did call last week a point of correction in the market, saying that Beans were Topping. They did look like a potential head and shoulders formation forming. BUT Fridays limit up move has shaddered a top price and challenged a timing theory. If the market is bound to go up under extremes., you can't stop it. In this example, he was right with whatever he was studying about market timing. IF we are in a huge upheaval to the upside, his timing documenting was correct. It did successful call a slow down in a price swing in the market. Yet., due to the extremes could not call a top.

If you believe that due to the prediction of Gann timing that the bean market is going to fall 50 cents tomorrow, That I would like to witness with my eyes no where but on the screen. I don't know what I would learn, but it would be something and that would be an experience.

The same thing happened in 2006. I remember an astrological prediction on corn at that time. It did call a turnaround in the market, which turned out to WAY surpass the pricing. BUT the Timing of a market pull back was correct. At that time, all my own indications on whatever I was studying was telling me that the corn market was going to go over $3.15, possibly then over $3.50 (*beyond 25 year Highs in price). Now at that time, corn was at $2.35 and people were ridiculing the idea of such. And this was a Top of an astrological timing claim at that time. We all know what happened. and this astrological cycle did effect the market. But the ego in thinking an astrological cycle was a top or a bottom, and not Just an effect on the market was the issue.

Well, I have other things to do now. Thanks for reading.
If you make any money on reading this, send me a check. If not, have a great week.