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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Absolutely Doji *LINK* *PIC*

BS"D

Good morning and a good week,

Other than an exciting opportunity to discuss a Plunge-Slide
variation (push the cork down hard and let go, the cork will
instantly squirt back up, higher), Friday was an absolutely
Doji day.

We scored OK on the way down, but only the stouthearted rode
Price Action back up to the R1 where the day opened.

Enjoy and be well,

DAILY PIVOT MAGIC TRADING JOURNAL - EXCERPT

******************************
Pivot Magic Trading
First rule:
"Any time you don't know what
is happening, get out!"
******************************

E-mini ES H2
Friday 30 March 2012

1 = From the gap-up opening, the bears are Determined!

* 123 above the R1 (blue arrow).

* 123 below the R1 (orange arrow).

* Third lower low (green arrow) 123 retest.

A = The bears finally break free. We are pulled in on a large red candle. Initial stop
advances above the high of the candle, for well-controlled At Risk.

B = DVS (pink arrow) generates a small gap and a large red inverted (Bull) Dragonfly.
This could mean exhaustion. Now is a perfect opportunity to apply my slip the stop into
the gap convention.

C = Another large red inverted (Bull) Dragonfly. Skid marks everywhere. The brakes are
on. The move is slowing. Per PMT stop rules, move the profit-locking stop above the High.

D = Interesting. Large red candle settles to the Close, without a hint of reversing.
None to wild about "settling" into the Green Fog Ambush Zone though.

Our position is in Pivot Magic Trading Maximum Profit Giveback (MPG) violation. Mental
stop at Giveback Level, but be prepared to go flat if the Close offers Support.

E = Late-in-the-move (6 red candles in a row) DVS (pink arrow) finally exhausts Momentum,
plunging through the Close and exiting the fog. The opening gap is now officially closed.
Our position is in MPG violation. Mental stop at Giveback Level.

2 = Large white candle retraces 2 points and tapes a clear 2-bar Reversal at the Close.
We exit instantly. +/- 3.25 points

There are two immediate and opposite Readings of the Tape:

* Price Action will now shift from Plunge to Slide mode,
turn sideways at the Close, and hide in the fog. Anyhow,
we don't trust DVS-based 2-candle signals for longevity.
Pass.

* The MA sling shot is stretched very taut; suggesting
that the preceding bear dive was only the first half of
a "make some trading range in a breathing market" attempt.
Doji spikes a 123, plunger back, kickoff (blue arrow),
clinching it. BBs are heading for the R1 before lunchtime.

F = Without Volume we may well pass rather than rely on our logical analysis. This is
a correct risk-conservative decision.

When the large white candle pushes off the MA, more advanced traders see a seductively
low risk entry in keeping with their logical Reading of the Tape. Initial stop under
the MA.

When Price Action stalls on the next candle, jump the stop to Free Trade and a tik.

G = Volume is somewhat aroused, and Price Action soars with a giant white candle. Our
Position is in MPG violation. Mental stop at Giveback Level. Noting the elongated top
wick, we remember the rest of our logical Reading of the Tape, and we prepare for a
Pivot Scalp exit at the Primary Objective, R1.

H = There it all is:

* Exhaustion gap

* Twin Towers (pink arrow) stall/sag indicator

* Large white candle vaguely spikes the R1 and
slams to a halt.

Pivot Scalp Exit, Now! +/- 3.75 points

Even if GREED whispers in your heart, the next 2 candles (three, if you're really
stubborn) crush your hopes, and you exit.

Volume disappears, and the day turns sideways back at the day's open, atop the R1.
The BBs never return from drinking TGIF, and Friday competes a totally Doji day.

PERSPECTIVE
(Daily, bottom chart)

Friday taped a very small white day candle. Price Action
remains breathing near the apex of the Expanding Triangle.
Traders are still hovering, perhaps waiting in anguish for
Tuesday's FOMC minutes.

REMEMBER: Trade the Tape, Not my Prognostics!

BE PREPARED FOR ANYTHING, AND GUARD YOUR FUNDS!

Asher
=] ;-)>

Friday's PMT Chart: