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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

3-yrs ago: Stocks & The Dollar; & Gold Today *LINK*

Nothing paints a more accurate forecast of future behavior than past and present behavior. My philosophy is simple: Find something simple that works and stick with it. The way to confirm it works is make sure that past analysis was useful/profitable.

This post from 3-years ago epitomizes keeping it simple and sticking w/ numbers not opinions. http://seekingalpha.com/article/694941-stocks-poised-for-multi-year-rally --- or click on the link below.

Given the success of that analysis, and that the numbers used have not changed -- we haven't even gotten to the point where the Fed will reverse course and start layering out of Treasuries, i.e.: QT I -- quantitative tightening -- I have to conclude that our strong dollar thesis is still very much in place.

Regarding Gold:

here is my response to a fellow writer on SeekingAlpha: "My method tells me gold is sewing in intermediate-term support right now -- which is of some interest to me as a trader because old gold is a decent forward indicator. However, I"d rather just trade long euro for a short-term hop. (When taking a counter-trend trade I always trade the market w/ the most open interest -- i.e.: has the potential for the largest short-squeeze) From an investor's standpoint however -- which in this game is all that really counts -- gold is not a buy. Cyclical or secular or grand pattern it's all a bear to me. My core position is long UUP".