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Commodity Trading Discussion Forum

Re: Commodities Roundup: Corn

Posted By: Blondie
Date: Thursday, 24 July 2008, at 4:03 p.m.

In Response To: Re: Commodities Roundup: Corn (Lee)

Yes, that is correct. I seriously doubt that this baby is going to collapse. Look for relative weakness now, then relative strength into the report. The trick is to figure out when the funds will start buying into the report. It could start now or not until early August. You will need great fortitude to stay in this market until the report, because it could be a couple of days limit up or limit down, depending on whether the Iowa Dept. of Agriculture and others have it right and a crop catastrophe is brewing or everything is swell with the crop. However, bear in mind that even with ideal growing conditions, there will only be ending stocks of 833 million bushels for corn and 140 million bushels for beans. Therefore, there will be tremendous competition for acreage next winter, assuming, of course, that the government doesn't free up 20 million acres of reserve land for planting next spring, which would no doubt cause a complete collapse of prices. This is why the techie guys say that you shouldn't pay any attention to fundamentals, because there are too many factors to consider and they all conflict with one another.

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