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The Commodity Trading Forum is a presentation of |
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Commodity Trading Discussion Forum
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Re: Astro/Techncial Trading/Trades
Posted By: Lee In Response To: Astro/Techncial Trading (Trades)
Date: Saturday, 4 July 2009, at 3:38 a.m.
Hi Trades, Happy 4th,
Now, I have to read the info you pointed to in your post. I give any line of thinking a fair shot.Since you are up.
Remember the other day when I put in a post - What happened with crude?? After it had popped up to about 73 and dropped back to about 66 in a couple of days. You posted the crude chart and later Wayne posted the article on the brokerage firm that had to sell off a fair number of crude contracts at a loss because an employee had made some "improper" trades.
Even though the numbers seemed small, it moved the market a fair amount.
On the Astro and cycles etc. I am coming to the conclusion [due to the large number of participants in many markets] that if enough believe that the market peaks on a "full moon" [for example] and they then decide to sell, then the resultant drop may be noticable.
The end result then, is more support for the theory that the cycles of the moon drive the market !!! A self perpetuating series of events.
I had always believed that market behavior was a "stochastic process" and that what happend yesterday has absolutely nothing to do with tomorrow.
I have changed my view on that a bit. Commodities are a good example - seasonal trends - when things are "normal".
Take Corn for example last year after the floods - that sure violated the "normal price cycle".
Same for Crude last year at $147 - that was not normal price cycle nor "supply/demand" it was wall street greed !!
If enough participants believe a market will move/change for a given reason - it may well come to pass.
Sugarman posted today that he expects the markets to drop in September and if by enough, it could effect things for years to come. I have no idea on what he based that opinion/projection on, but if enough participants are in tune with what ever he is thinking, it may well happen.
Support/Resistance makes a lot of sense to me. That "random stochastic process" of buying/selling just goes on as participants decide to enter/leave a market for a whole host of reasons as time goes on, but at a point more and more say "hey, I'm not going to sell it for that" and on the upside "hey, pigs get slaughtered" I'm taking that trip to Hawaii !!!
I liked your discussion/charts of the TBond cycles. Maybe it is as simple as the fact that in "normal times" home sales rise into spring and decline into fall and that is where the demand is - so the yields rise/fall on that cycle.
Maybe more asteroids approach the Earth in the Spring and investors drive the yields up so that they have some extra cash on hand if they are lucky enough to survive a hit!!!
Anyway, the numbers are so large, that a substantial number of participants, subscribing to any theory, may well produce a noticeable blip in the markets.
But, squabbling produces no results, constructive thinking, analysis and team work often does.
Lee
Footnote:
I think it is fairly well documented that animals sense changes [magnetic field ?] as stresses build up before an earthquake and flee the area.What/who is to say that we humans are not somehow affected by planetary alignments, gravitational changes etc. And hence, our decisions on the management of our money/investments.
The movement of the moon sure moves a lot of water around here on our good ol earth. I know I always felt more "up beat" at high tide when in the bay - but I think I always thought that was just because I didn't have to look at the Mud.
If you want to print this message, you might have better results, and waste less paper if you print this printer friendly page.
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