Welcome to the TFC Commodity Trading Forum.
Please feel welcome to join in on these informative ongoing discussions about trading futures and commodities.

The Trading Forum is intended for the open discussion of commodities trading. The management of this Forum does not agree or disagree with the ideas exchanged, and does not exert editorial control over the message posted herein. Read and post at your own risk. The risk of loss in trading or commodities can be substantial. We discourage the use of this Forum to promote trading that is acknowledged to be risky. Please note: many links from the Forum lead to pages on other web sites. We cannot take responsibility for nor endorse the information presented on those sites.

TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Winseer:Euro/Winseer
In Response To: Re: Winseer:Euro/astrolav ()

I also tend to be deflationist; however, it can take a long time (in futures speculator time wrap) for the various markets to come down. Taking short positions based these macro ideas may cost a lot money and sleepless nights until the day comes when one is proven right.

Two years ago, given droughts and El Nino, I convinced myself that cotton will be in a short supply. I took a long position at around 60 and after couple of weeks, I was down 2.5K. I stuck in and was happy to get out with $500 profit or so thinking that my shortage theory was wrong. About 0.5 years later, cotton took off and we all know what happened. The point is, before the fundamentals matter, the market can do multiple switcheroos before catching up with supply/demand.

As to $5 gas... and 100+ oil... since "everybody" in the US is talking about it, I have my doubts. Besides, when deflation takes hold, oil may actually move south not north. Even China will not help - in my view China is a giant house of cards. They have been stocking up on materials but how long can this last?
I have also serious doubts about their communist/capitalist hydra system. The west seems to be obsessed with them like it was obsessed with Japan in the 80's.

I am now long EC & ED and short DX & RR. and patiently waiting (yeah right :) ) to get back into ES (short) and T-Bonds (long) My EC and DX positions are continuous, something I want to resume with ES and other stock indexes (I like TF).

Messages In This Thread

Re: Winseer:Euro/Winseer