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Re: Selling Options Profit/ Trend

If you are confident of winning, then you just want the biggest return available for the smallest outlay.

Casinos take advantage of this by offering the very poorest odds on those games with the biggest returns, such as Keno, Progressive Slots, and of course Craps.

I have never pushed a chip across green felt in my life, but I have frequented horse racing establishments.
Observing the crowd, one notices the "hard gambler" who always bets in fancied horses, and yet rarely seems to win.
90% of races are won by the favorite or 2nd favorite, but when you are on one of them (doesn't pay to be on both!) you are still losing more than 50% of the time, with an average return of 80% (4/5 odds) which won't keep such punters ahead.
LADIES who are only there for a fun bet, and day out will back horses with names they like, numbers they like, or the one that winked at them - no one cares.
The point is though, that there are whole CROWDS of ladies walking out with a nice profit. Sure, it is still way under 50% (more like under 10%) but the amount they win is large enough compared to what they spent that it really makes their day.

and then there's people like me, who have a hard time finding winners, but when I do get one it pays a stack, as I've bet in a manner than returns the absolute maximum for that kind of result. Only a couple of nerdy students, mathematicians, game theorists, and myself will probably be partaking, and sometimes we even step on each other's feet, as one of my big strategies here is to have a 1 ticket on a "skinner" (horse with no other money on it) which of course results in "copping the lot" - A very rewarding experience which I've done about once every 18 months over the years (I go racing 10-12 times per year, max bet 1 so I'm not laying out that much) It's just a bit of fun to me, but it gives me a buzz similar to futures trading.

Investing is serious, gambling should be fun. Bookmakers mix the two together as part of their larger strategy. Laying horses hoping the favorite doesn't win all the time has sent many a bookmaker to the funny farm, or somewhere 6 feet deeper. Yet bookmakers mainly prosper. They only go bust because of a long run of winning favorites OR of course....

Pause for effect...

The dreaded Black Swan!

I like betting 1 to try and cop the lot. Beats laying 1 hoping I'm going to lose that 1000th time out of 1000 but alas....

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Re: Selling Options Profit/ Trend