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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Bears are Hybernating *PIC*



Good morning,

The bears are still hibernating. We squeaked out a couple of small
trades to cover our overhead. Mostly, however, Tuesday's small-range
day left us sitting bewildered on the sidelines, with our funds
protected by the risk-conservative PMT Money Management rules.

Will the Bears wake up on Wednesday?

Enjoy and be well,


E-mini ES H1
Tuesday January 11, 2011

NOTE: The trading ranges are consistently small and interest
(Volume is minimal). Best advice is to sit it out till after
the 15th of January.

Session opens gap-up midway between the R1 and R2 and dives for the R1.

1 = A 2-bar Reversal through the R1. Move never takes off.

2 = Higher Low 123, second try off the R1 fails to take off.

3 = Even Higher Low 123 for a failed Third Time Through (TTT) at the R1. Our Failed TTT Corollary
reading calls for an assault on the R2 next. Good odds.

A = Volume perks a bit (pink arrow) driving a healthy white candle off the MA, pulling us in with
an invitation to advance the initial stop under the MA for reduced At Risk.

B = DVS (pink arrow) exhausts most of the Momentum generating a large white candle. Per our stop
rules, move the profit-locking stop under the low of the candle. The elongated top wick (so close
to the Primary Objective R2) suggests a Pivot Scalp exit may be coming. Use a mental stop for exit
speed (no time consuming Cancel-Replace).

C = Small white candle taps on R2 and retracts. Since we have no excuse to move our stop anyway,
with the position in Pivot Magic Trading Maximum Profit Giveback violation, we have a double reason
for a Pivot Scalp exit. +/- 2.25 points

Over the next couple of candles, the bounce tapes a Doji Sandwich, "P" Signal off the R2. With the
R1 proven, however, the Price Window is too small to satisfy our criterion. Pass.

Lunchtime sideways drift ensues.

4 = This "P" Signal off the MA qualifies as a PMT "S" Signal. Volume is aroused, but the Price
Window to the R1 is still too small. We sit, briefly frustrated, through a massive plunge.

5 = Reversal at the R1, with just about enough Price Window to trade. It is DVS-based (pink arrow),
which makes us distrust the Signal for longevity. In fact the move is stillborn.

6 = A Double-tap 123 Continuation above the R1, and a 2-candle 123 below (blue arrow). This combo
would be more inviting if there were some trading interest.

D = Trading interest/Volume comes to life (pink arrow), and we are pulled in on a giant red candle
through the High. The elongated bottom wick is a bit worrisome, so advance the initial stop above
the High for instant locked-in profit. Yay!

E = DVS (unlabeled, sorry) drives a large red candle south. Per our stop rules, move the
profit-locking stop above the high of the candle. Again, an elongated bottom wick. Make that a
mental stop, and prepare for a Pivot Scalp exit.

7 = Giant white candle stabs through the Close and retracts. Pivot Scalp exit. +/- 2.50 points

The white candle closes the opening gap, but it is more of a wispy Doji than a Dragonfly, which
makes this a DVS-based reversal. The R1 is nominally proven anyway and Volume instantly drops off.
We pass.

Price Action gently drifts back up to the R1 where it closes EOD.

(Daily, bottom chart)

Tuesday taped a small-range white candle. The candle's elongated top wick
leaves us still anticipating a drive back to mid LT Trend Channel (green
channel lines) in the near future.


REMEMBER: Trade the Tape, Not my Prognostics!

=] ;-)>

Tuesday's PMT Chart: