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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: SI Fut Chain/Lee
In Response To: Re: SI Fut Chain/Trend ()

When I pick up cheap options, I tend to write it down as a "straight loss" in my trading book. Nearly all the options I do pick up tend to be of the "flyer" variety such as you are interested in with Silver. A large move soon is needed to make anything out of them, so most of the time either the move will be the wrong way, or it won't be large and quick enough in the desired direction.

Because these futures options markets are so thin, one is essentially making a play against a premium collector that is happy to take your bet.

I find that in the UK, "layers" are more akin to accepting any bet at large odds, whereas in other countries large odds bets are often turned away in mainstream gambling establishments. I put this as a big reason for the thin markets in far OTM options, especially those with a few days to run such as you and I might be interested in.

OI isn't really relevent to our goals, since it is a "hit or miss" proposition. Once the option goes into the money, you don't need to worry about having a fair bid when it is time to cash in, as if there isn't one, it is possible to offset by trading the opposite future, and excercising the option. This costs double commission sure, but it's hardly a big amount compared to the sort of cash one hopes to be taking out of the market here!

I have not made a closing sale of options since 2004, but have made numerous profits (albeit sparodic!) from offsetting in the above manner since then - something easily and cheaply possible with options on futures that is cumbersome and expensive with options not excercisable into futures contracts.

"Fire and forget" until they reach the strike, and one should then find some two-way prices appearing.

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Re: SI Fut Chain/Lee