Yer right about existing longs Trades..they must be crying a river of tears as this market has continued to grind down and languish for what must seem like an eternity for diehard bulls.
As for what it will take to permanently turn the trend in NG, it is difficult to say at this point. The bottom will likely be cemented in when the last bull throws in the towel...who knows, maybe that point of maximum pain and mass capitulation is close at hand...but as you say, if NG can't stage any kind of significant rally coming into this period of seasonal strength, the chart won't be shaking off that 'bear' ugly look near-term.
PS: Just heard reports of a major liquid NG explosion down in the U.S. Don't have the details yet...