Hi Bill,
Well, I would clearly like to think someone knows what they are doing ???? BUTTTTTTT,
I clearly remember back in the 70's when the Shah of Iran was forced out and Khomeini took over.
What I no longer remember is all of the "fine details" but we got our butts handed to us on that one.
My ex wife and I were a "host family" to representatives to the UN Consular Corps. One was Ali P. (hope he survived, but I doubt it) he was aligned with the current government of the Shah when the turmoil began. He was re-called to Iran, but he thought it was a "promotion" and saw no serious issues with what was going on. How wrong he was, it was only a matter of days before Khomeini took over. [Never heard from him again, and we always kept in touch when he went back and forth.]
Further, before he left, the view was that the Shah would weather the storm, and the US was strongly supporting the Shah. Well, the US seriously miss judged that one and I have little confidence that the US will do any better now.
The main thing that has changed is the Internet communications, and if that can be kept up and running, maybe there is a chance that the general population will be able to prevail in bringing about change. Hopefully for the better, but I seriously doubt the US govt. will have a good handle on it !!
The only "good" that I have seen coming out of "US govt." lately is the award of the Air Force Tanker program to Boeing rather than Airbus. If somebody stood up and said those jobs are staying in the US and screw the bids "good for them" !!!!!
Lee