Re: Nat. Gas and over all trading
The value of a good forum is good discussions. You had asked for my "technical" opinion of Gas, as I stated in my opinion it was prepared for a upswing. It did have a upswing, but it still has not proved to be a trend "change", and you objective of 3.25 could ultimately be correct.
Speaking for the current market position we should see some correction of this small upswing. The key work is "should", but as you know we never trade "should", or I think. A technical trader will trade the market based on the strenght/ weakness of the current move, and then decide what is best for his position.. long, short, or OUT. Out is a position often over looked, but for the smaller trader OUT is a postion that they should always use to their advantage. Larger traders, commericals just don't have this advantage of in and out that is used effectively by the smaller players of the market.
A smaller traders can easily exit the market and wait for more information about the strenght or weakness of the market.
Me? When I traded my positions were that of a large trader, not to be confused with my weight. Unlike a lot of large traders I would move my postions much like the small trader and it was effective. A postion, for my trading was somewhere around the level of 800 plus contracts, my enteries were around 25/50 contracts at a time, however often my exit was 100%. And 'at the market", never price orders. Another thing the smaller traders can use to their advantage "priced orders". Me? As a large trader many of my postions were filled off smaller traders that had limit orders resting in the market. I know because when the fills came back their was all kinds of sizes to total my order. Example 500 at the market, may come back 12@, 23@ 22@, 9@ you can easily tell they were priced order by smaller traders.
Now to get back to the reason for these rambling comments. The market postion currently, when I was speaking to you about an upturn is now at a point of reaction, or test. A decision point for a trader stay long and ride through the potential reaction, exit, but just as important is to keep the decision of what to do simple because all traders large and small are making the same decision, and that is where trading gets interesting. Speaking now about the May contract the 4.00 level is an important level.
Coral I kind of wished you had not asked my opinion the other day because now I am ending up discussing the technical position of a market I have not traded for many years.. I have much more to do enjoying all life as to offer, but to share my opinion with a friend that asked is also fun.
Look Luck to You Coral