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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Chinese Trade Data

This might be the game-changing catalyst that has been brewing for months now...

If the Chinese refrain from paying the asking price for everything they want to import, and start actually haggling prices instead, what is going to happen to the formally strong import market commodities?

It is not so much a question of falling demand, but rather refusal to pay marked-up prices in anticipation of China's normally bottomless wallet.

Markets may go sideways for quite a while, representing great opportunities for option writers. Higher prices will be rejected, but the markets may be bought aggresively on dips.

I would argue that the greatest bear pressure may befall Grains & Energies followed by imported metals & foreign debt which the Chinese may choose to lighten up on at this time.

Water is something that the Chinese always seem to be short of, but I have not bought water on a "stock market" except in Frontier Elite (showing my age now!)