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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Corn , Wheat and Soybean-Wild Rides/Coral

I replaced a single $3500 liability per day futures contract short with 5 puts at limit distance away. These have two weeks to see the underlying go under 1250 and cost me a measly $750 including commission for the whole thing.

As risk management goes, I see there being a high chance that beans will NOT be in the 1250-1400 range in two week's space. I lose $750 if they DO stay in that range.
If 1400 is taken out, I lose $750 but save $3500+ on my ditched short lot and if they go sub-1250 I make a decent profit ($250 per point under 1250 - pretty good exposure for the limited liability the other way)

I don't like buy/write option strategies, as they just drum up commission for brokers IMO. As for outright "writes" - One black swan and one is toast, so I don't like the liability, even if the actual risk is very small. Bookmakers go bust not because too many favorites win, but because they didn't lay off that big bet on the winning longshot, figuring it "didn't have a chance" and all. I'm too unlucky to take risks like that, so I have small stabs when and where I think the crowd has calculated the odds wrong.....

The market decides if there is enough consistency to make a profit over the long term. It is also possible for both opposing opinions to get paid off - albeit at different moments of the same trade of course!

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Re: Corn , Wheat and Soybean-Wild Rides/Coral