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Re: 'Natural Gas...keeps on truckin'/Lee

Hey Lee,

I hadn't even looked at the overnite trade until after you mentioned it in your post. Now I see NG has been as high as $4.37 already. As you say, it will definitely be interesting to watch how it holds up to and through tomorrow's report.

Demand may not change substantially near-term, but as with all emerging bulls, the new trend always starts with a shift in sentiment first, and consequently the flow of money. Keep in mind that markets are forward discounting mechanisms and, with the shift in mood away from nuclear in the U.S. to NG as the best viable alternative, the market will start to price in changes in demand that may take as much as 6-12 months to appear. Up to this point in time, the market has been pricing in and discounting the huge quantity of domestic supplies as if they will never diminish, but with the changing tide, the market may quickly acknowledge that it has overshot the mark in this regard. You are correct that a continuing economic recovery in the U.S. would also contribute to rising manufacturing demand and consumption. In any event, it will take some time for the actual supply/demand fundamentals to confirm a change in trend, at which point the price of NG will already be a good distance off the bear market lows.

A good parallel to NG right now is crude oil back in the late 90's when it was languishing near $10 per barrel amidst a never ending stream of 'bearish' fundamental newsflow from the financial press ie. the world was awash in crude and to espouse the idea that it could ever surpass $40, let alone push the $150 mark witnessed in 2008, would have been considered grounds for being checked into a mental ward, lol. The point is that bull markets generally emerge when the 'fundamental' headlines are most negative, just like conversely they die at the top when the news is touting how incredibly good those fundamentals now are and will forever continue to be.

Food for thought in any event. Oh, by the way, I never consider any of your posts to be 'chasing' anything other than good market discussion Lee. You are one of the best contributors on this board in terms of advancing the market 'chat'.

Best regards

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Re: 'Natural Gas...keeps on truckin'/Lee