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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

short and longer range weather update

Ensemble contine with the pattern between April 1 and April 8th of cooler (markedly cooler) in the Great Lakes and New England, warmer in the Rocky mountain states and So Cal, and near normal elsewhwere. For the next seven days, the average temperature in NYC will run about 10F below normal. Normal average 24hr temperatures average upper to mid 40's...for the next week its mid 30's.

Given the start of spring and the lengthening season, its not unreasonable to suspect that once the big atmospheric pattern transition takes place from a cold trough in the east to a ridge, the regime will rapidly shift from excess heating degree days to excess cooling degree days. However, the only cooling degree day anomaly in the model's cards is over the SW and southern California around April 3-6 as the ridge builds over the SW. For the NE, it appears it will remain cool and heating gas demand will remain above average, with eastern region NG stocks continuing their decline, at least for the next 2 weeks.