THE NAEFS (link below) and most reliable ensembles forecast a persistent anomaly pattern through the middle of the month - cold in the upper midwest to NE, warm near the southern Rockies and Lousisana, with Sol Cal's recent warmth converging with climatology, and near normal temperatures elsewhere. No change in the pattern so far in any cyrstal ball. The most negative anomalies are anchored around the Great lakes, which can act like a big air conditioner this time of year. However, the main driver is a persistent, and regularly reenforced low upper-atmosphere cold trough over the NE.