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Important 'Red Flag' warning for Silver *PIC*

I appreciate that Silver has been in a strong uptrend and that its chart, as many have correctly pointed out on the forum, has not shown any significant weakness or deterioration to suggest that its run has reached 'the' end.

Nor are prolonged overbought conditions or a super-extended Silver/Gold ratio sufficient to hang a short trade on with confidence. Also, seasonal patterns are not quite ripe enough yet to bank on the traditional spring top. Extreme sentiment might be a better guage than these other measures for anticipating a near-term turn, as the boat is getting pretty tippy on the bull side. Still, one has to be leary of a market that just wants to chew up as many premature bears as this one has over the last year or so.

But perhaps the best warning signal of all for a possible near-term Silver correction is the performance of the premier Silver stock in the sector versus the metal itself. Silver Wheaten has been a stellar performer throughout this bull and has consistantly outperformed every other significant Silver stock as well as Silver itself for years...at least up until 4 months ago.

The chart below pretty much speaks for itself but the key feature in my mind is that the ratio has now fallen below the 200dma for the third time in 2011, after spending the best part of two years above it, starting in March 2009. It now appears to be struggling mightily to get its head back above that waterline and is also below the 50dma as well. A bearish cross (50 below 200) appears imminent.

Also, if one draws the 2 year trendline on this chart, they can quickly see that it broke below it in the early days of January, and had one retest and failure coming from below the line at 1.29 in early March. All the other indicators (RSI, MACD, Stochs) are now in bearish territory too.

So, not the be-all and end-all for the Silver market but definitely worthy of consideration if one is looking to get long Silver at this juncture...

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Important 'Red Flag' warning for Silver *PIC*