The Euro, similar, yet on a smaller scale to the Yen, could see a price blow up should resistance not materialize at the 143.00 handle -- see chart. The reason behind the *soda-pop rally, similar to last month’s yen bubble, would be because shorts are trapped, and longs don’t want to sell to them, yet.
Trading like business itself can be a rough affair. Experienced traders chuckle at the notion that an individual wishing to learn to trade needs to find a method that suits their personality. And what sort of personality would complement the manic nature of market movement? My guess is clannish people would be better suited than tribal people, because sharing is not a good trait for a trader. Vikings for instance may have made fine traders. A viking's natural inclination, after fighting to a bloody draw with his cousin over a scrap of grizzle, would be to go over the hill to the next village and dispose of the men-folk, and help themselves to the live-stock, stores, etc. The viking was well suited for planning such an operation and executing that operation, and improvising along the way to achieve survival and success. So too a trader must be able to both plan and execute, and still make decisions designed towards maximizing their success along the way. Over the course of allowing a profit to run, the viking, I mean trader, notices subtleties along the way, such as shallow retracements, or even no retracements. Rather than being happy with the bird in hand, the trader recognizes the enemy – anyone with the opposite position – is weakening, and adds to long positions, before the shorts, who will, because of the beauty of margin requirements, be forced to buy back their position, or come up w/ more cash. This is what I imagine happened in the yen last month and what could quite possibly be happening in the euro right now. And the key to the viking and the trader being successful in their exploits? Do not over-think, just execute.
*soda-pop rally: when a market, similar to a shaken up bottle of soda pop when the cap is popped, spurts suddenly higher and collapses just as quickly, leaving a sticky mess on the brokers left holding their clients debits.
Jay Norris is host of The Daily Forex Report and the author of the soon to be released Mastering Trade Selection & Management, McGraw-Hill, 2011.
DISCLAIMER: Forex (off-exchange foreign currency futures and options or FX) trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor!