When it comes to fundamentals I've always believed there are too many variables to quantify accurately. Smart money already has the odds of this calculated and have already made their moves. So the market has already reacted to the odds of it happening. That is why so often you get long awaited news and the market does the exact opposite of what it should. Smart money was already on it and gets out on the news release. Like the old saying goes "Buy the rumour and sell the fact".