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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Pivot-to-Pivot Trade *PIC*



Good morning,

Though we were tempted, there was really nothing to trade
in the morning session. Got one nice Pivot-to-Pivot trade
in the early afternoon though.

Looks like the Bear Retracement is finally underway.

Enjoy and be well,


E-mini ES H1
Monday April 11, 2011

Our week opens slightly gap-up at the Pivot.

1 = Price Action stitches the Pivot, finally presenting (sort of) a Reversal Signal.
Volume is down. Without confirmation we let it pass.

2 = Series of signals. Except for the final 123, most don't prove. We don't enter
directly into the green fog Ambush Zone. Still sitting.

3 = Mid lunchtime 123 "S" Signal. Volume surges (pink arrow), and some of us enter
aggressively. (Personally, I'd hesitate to enter on a DVS during lunchtime. Good
ole risk-conservative me.) Initial stop advances above the Close.

A = Lovely. A Black Volume Bar of Death (pink arrow) Doji. Prepare to exit on
white. Perhaps move the profit-locking stop to Free Trade, or convert the existing
stop to a mental one.

Stall continues with a small red candle. Now for sure move the stop to Free Trade
in case the Bears can't recover.

B = Large red candle. Per our stop rules, move the profit-locking stop above the
high of the candle.

When the next candle retraces>62% recognize the PMT Exit Now! Signal.
+/- 1.75 points

See why I hesitate to enter a lunchtime DVS away from the Close?!?

4 = This 2-bar off the Close is a bit small, but today's ABS is small.
No Volume though.

C = Just in time, 4th candle breaks below the MA and Volume perks up (pink arrow).
We are pulled in. Initial stop advances above the MA.

D = For today this is a large red candle. Per PMT stop rules, move the
profit-locking stop above the high of the candle.

Tape displays an S-stall and we prepare to exit.

E = DVS (pink arrow) drives a large red candle. Per PMT stop rules, move the
profit-locking stop above the high of the candle. The elongated bottom wick
suggests a Pivot Scalp at the S1.

F = Super DVS (pink arrow) Twin Towers indicates a stall/sag is next. Exhaustion
gap compounds the reading. Large red candle through the Low. Per PMT stop rules,
move the profit-locking stop above the Low. Since the huge DVS probably exhausted
the Momentum, be prepared to exit. Perhaps even use a mental stop.

5 = Pivot Scalp exit +/- 4.50 points

Our entry clock has run out so we know to shut down and NOT to enter here. Move
never really proves, and Price Action dribbles to an EOD close just above the Low.

(Daily, bottom chart)

Monday taped a healthy red day candle, clearly outside the
LT Trend Channel (green channel lines). The Bears have
finally turned the corner. The stall seems to be over and
the move south is underway.


REMEMBER: Trade the Tape, Not my Prognostics!

=] ;-)>

Monday's PMT Chart: