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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Reminds Me of a Story

I remember well, as many do,that were in the market during the break of 87' the suprise of the traders and clients.

Traders were in fact blindsided BIG time. So much so Night Line with Ted Coppell gave a special show with the world's leading economists. Those that could not be there in person where teleconferened on wide screens. Then behind the stage was a large map lit up with calls from all over the US, and a caller would ask a question and all these experts would offer the answers.

Remember the main reason for the break given by the media and talking heads was the past Friday's trade balance report. (By the way we are much worst today than then).

I will never forget the question from a little ol' lady on a farm in the Mid-west. Her question summed it up,. It went something like...

I hear it was the trade number released last Friday correct, that caused the big drop.. many nodded and gave a responding YES.

She then asked if everyone already knew, or had a good idea of the trade number why was it such a suprise, and why did the market respond with such a BIG drop.

You could have heard a pin drop, because no one wanted to take that question because it was obvious the trade number, as the reason, was just a media answer from talking heads explaining what they did not know.

I remember it so well because I sit on the financial board of our Church and I made a motion we get out of the market 100% the month before the drop. My motion was tabled meaning I could not bring it up until the next session.

The next month the break had already occured, and I said nothing. The big traders handling our account had liquidated 50% of our stock on the lows. Nuff said.

So it is good to sometimes listen to that little ol'lady on a farm,.. full of common sense.