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Re: Natgas Weekly Chart/Silverbear/Hal/Lee

Hi Hal, Silverbear

I tend to agree completely with your comment.

I took Silverbears comment to having been made independent of "looking at the options".

I do subscribe to Trades "most damage" theory at expiration.
A drop in Silver would be consistent with that. But there is still a fair amount of time left till expiration so I guess the options picture could change substantially yet.

I'm not convinced much can be learned from the "OI" for a given months options ??? There might be "just too much" buried in various hedge positions, as well as spreads/calendar spreads to make much sense of it ???

Now, if one could conclude that the weighting toward the calls were mostly "Johnny come lately" folks to the "party" looking for a "cheap" windfall, maybe it would be a great indicator !!!!!!!

Was same in March, with the weighting heavily toward the Puts, and all we got was a little pullback at expiration, then off to the "moon" again as Trades would say !!

Not being convinced there is merit in looking at the OI in more detail I have been reluctant to spend the time to boil down the data to the Integer strikes. All of the intermediate strikes cloud the picture so much I find it hard to really make sense of it unless the imbalance is so "gross" that it really stands out.

Maybe I'll just have to take an evening to write the code to boil things down and see what falls out over a number of months of tracking ????

Thanks, Lee

Messages In This Thread

Re: Natgas Weekly Chart/Silverbear/Hal/Lee