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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Pivot Trading Doji Days *PIC*


Good morning,

Doji days are notoriously hard to trade. Tuesday was no exception.
The Fibonacci 62% Retracement Level was tested, but by day's end
Price Action retreated into the green fog Ambush Zone.
We got one good PMT trading opportunity and a couple of fake outs.

Still no responses to the new maneuver for beating S-traps that we
published on Monday. Nu?

Enjoy and be well,


"When you speak of success,
you attract success."
Napoleon Hill


E-mini ES H1
Tuesday May 17, 2011

Tuesday opens gap-down at the Fibonacci 62% Retracement Level (Daily, bottom chart, purple
dotted line), immediately trading back to close the gap.

1 = DVS-based (pink arrow) 2-bar Reversal off the Close. Even though the reversing candle
already exits the green fog, we don't trust DVS-based 2-candle signals for longevity. Pass.

2 = Whopping 123 through the Close. DVS (pink arrow) makes this an aggressive entry above
the fog. Initial stop advances under the Close.

A = Large white candle. Per our stop rules, move the profit-locking stop under the low of
the candle.

NOTE: It is 10:30 Reversal Time on the clock and the Late-in-the-Move
DVS (pink arrow) spells trouble. Make that a mental stop to facilitate
emergency bail out if >62% is retraced.


3 = Mid-air Reversal (blue arrow) precedes a 2-candle 123 through the close (orange arrow).
Volume is healthy and consistent. Enter below the fog. Initial stop advances above the Low.

B = Following a red inverted (Bull) Dragonfly, this Spinning Top Doji is worrisome. Though
PMT stop rules say to move the stop above the high of the candle, I'd move it to Free Trade
and a tik (good ole risk-conservative me!)

C = A small gap, and the tail of a large red inverted (Bull) Dragonfly spikes through the
dotted purple line and retracts. Is this the end? Use my aggressive convention and slip
the stop into the gap.

D = Giant DVS (pink arrow) exhausts Momentum pumping a gigantic red candle through the S1.

Normal stop placement, above the S1, leaves exposed (including the 1.25 point already recouped
in the bottom wick) well more than >2 points retraced for an Exit Now! Since the Momentum is
clearly spent, even a small white candle will put us out. Exit Now! with the extra points in
your pocket. +/- 5 points

4 = Is a 12345 a real signal? Too close to lunchtime to fiddle with unknowns. Pass.

5 = Nice Reversal off the S1. Absolutely no juice behind this reversal (pink arrow). We pass.

6 = Nice Reversal, but the preceding trend is too short to permit consideration.

7 = Failed TTT attempt at the 62% Fib Retracement level (purple dotted line) describes a Full
Double Bottom "P" Slingshot of the MA, which is of course a PMT "S" Signal.

Volume is up, confirming.

Yuk! Too bad there's no acceptable open Price Window before the green fog and proven Close.

The PMT entry clock runs out and the day trades atop the Close sideways in the green fog to EOD.

(Daily, bottom chart)

Though Tuesday's large candle spiked the 62% Fibonacci
Retracement Level (dotted purple line), the day closed a
drab Doji breather day.

Note that we have shown a larger slice of the Daily chart
than previously. This is to point out that the S/R (blue
dotted line) has influenced Price Action on multiple Historical


REMEMBER: Trade the Tape, Not my Prognostics!

=] ;-)>

Tuesday's PMT Chart: