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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

weather May 28-June 3

Ensembles indicate a anomalously warm East and below average West. I've looked over the divergence (the tendency to degrade in internal certainty) in the models over the last month or so and with the onset of spring this year, predictablity seems to me to have become very poor beyond about day 5 at this time. The skill in forecasting general circulation features is being affected (in the models) by the daily strong convection over the mid-section of the US one expects when the Jet stream is as strong as it has been this season.

This week will be warm in the east generally from a line from Philadelphia WSW to central New Mexico. North of the line cooler than average, in general, and continuing sharply cooler over the Pac NW. Wet from the southern plains thru Arkansas, Missouri, southern Illinois, most of the Ohio Valley and New York. Wet too over Montana and the Northern plains for the next few days. A few models are suggesting heavy rain over Alabama and Georgia toward the end of the week but that's a low confidence forecast which is too bad since they could use some. It looks to remain dry over west Texas and New Mexico but thunderstorms will bring some drought relief to E Texas.

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weather May 28-June 3