Welcome to the TFC Commodity Trading Forum.
Please feel welcome to join in on these informative ongoing discussions about trading futures and commodities.

The Trading Forum is intended for the open discussion of commodities trading. The management of this Forum does not agree or disagree with the ideas exchanged, and does not exert editorial control over the message posted herein. Read and post at your own risk. The risk of loss in trading or commodities can be substantial. We discourage the use of this Forum to promote trading that is acknowledged to be risky. Please note: many links from the Forum lead to pages on other web sites. We cannot take responsibility for nor endorse the information presented on those sites.

TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Natural-gas futures retreat /Hal/Ronbo *PIC*

Hey Ron,

Yup, had a decent weekend spent with family down on the South Shore of Nova Scotia...an absolutely beautiful part of the province.

Anywho, I can understand yer jumpiness on any outsized position, as a relatively big stake does tend to make one sensitive to every extra tick against them. This is even more true with NG given its inherant volatility and the major 'jumpiness' we see with it on any given week. It definitely has a 'roller coaster' feel to it at times. (Case-in-point: Look at today's action, lol...you know a few longs got knocked off the train with that quick mid-day plunge! Now back into positive territory!)

I've come to appreciate how adept this little beast is at throwing off folks at key points before reversing direction. Of course, you just know that when this thing finally decides to go on a serious sustained bull charge, it will take as few passengers along for the ride as possible. I know you see the potential for this market in the medium to longer term as I do, so it's important to be firmly holding one's 'ticket' when this sucker busts loose. I suspect it will be challenging to get on board after-the-fact.

The key for me to maintaining my 'ticket' on this thing has been to slowly build a position with a solid foundation, buying on scary plunges into deep support, while taking some off the table by selling into periodic strength. Also, all the options I have accumulated are deep-in-the-money with plenty of time to spare, which has allowed me to whether the periods of weakness and actually improve my overall positioning. The time decay component is virtually elimnated the deeper in the money your options are, so that has not been a significant factor weighing against me either. Also, attacking on multiple fronts has been useful as I've continued to book profits throughout the year on Natgas ETF and stock trading positions, such as ECA.

Just some of my thoughts on this commodity. I have clearly been approaching it from a longer term view, mounting a campaign designed to sustain a marathon, not a mere sprint. Definitely not daytrading this beast, although positioning still requires me to be quite active on a weekly basis with multiple buy and sells at times. But again, it's all working in unison towards a campaign that aims to reap outsized returns when (not if) NG finally breaks out of its long trading range, one that has tracked sideways for 21 months now since the bear market low was made in September 2009.

Glad to see you re-established a position yesterday morning Ron. Best of luck to us both going forward with it all eh :) Cheers!

Messages In This Thread

Re: Natural-gas futures retreat /Hal/Ronbo *PIC*