Ensembles suggest a continuation of the current pattern: generally anomalously warm in the east, and cool west of a line from SE New Mexico to NE Minnesota.

This week starts off stormy and cool over the Pac NW and muggy over most of the east, except over the NE where temperatures are seasonable. The NE will warm up to above average by mid week and then cool back to near normal by the weekend as a weak cold front drops south from Ontario. It should remain anomalously warm over the Gulf coast states and SE. It lookes to be rather wet and stormy over Montana and the northern Plains for the first half of this week.

The Carribean is rather busy and the National Hurricance Center is forecasting a 30% chance of tropical storm formation south of Jamaica during the next 48 hours. The track of this potential tropical storm system is currently unpredictable with models solutions spanning 180 degrees from due W to E. If it starts to aim for the Gulf of Mexico, there may be a large effect on NG and oil futures.