There is a weather effect Lee that adds a measure of predictability to NG price forecasts but as we've discused, it is superimposed on the seasonal pattern of injections, and the secular trend of increasing production. So for me I trade for short periods if I believe that the convergence or divergence of these patterns will make a significant difference in the supply and to the supply trend. I buy ETFs, both directions, because i'm not really in a position to take delivery if I guess the wrong way