Hi Ceejay,
I included the text of your post here for reference.
"
There is a weather effect Lee that adds a measure of predictability to NG price forecasts but as we've discused, it is superimposed on the seasonal pattern of injections, and the secular trend of increasing production. So for me I trade for short periods if I believe that the convergence or divergence of these patterns will make a significant difference in the supply and to the supply trend. I buy ETFs, both directions, because i'm not really in a position to take delivery if I guess the wrong way "
=========
I'm still stumbling on this !! I will likely demonstrate considerable ignorance here.

The weekly storage report really seems to be of "high" interest, and "moves" the market price.
- Do you agree on above comment ??
- This often results in a "significant" adjustment to price.

This is where I am tempted to concentrate for now.

Price will move/vary for many reasons.
Long Term:
Will certainly be Supply/Demand.

Medium Term:
[months or year or two ??]
Projections based on "historical data" primarily consumption
- Seasonality
- Technical Analysis will likely be in here
- Production improvements
- Regulatory changes
- Weather ?? I exclude here since the cyclic expectations of production disruptions (say Gulf of Mex.) are likely already estimated/priced in via the Tech. Analysis

Short Term: [Call this weekly for now ...]
- I suppose most of the [medium term items will be slowly creeping in here over time as things evolve] but that is not the change we see "every Thursday morning" !!
------
So, what is going on with that "storage report" ??
- It is a near "instantaneous" (close as we can likely get) picture of current demand.
- Ng "delivery" is basically an "open pipe". What goes out, goes out. Measured by what flows through the pipe lines, or what leaves the "storage sites".
- So we know what "short term total consumption" is !!
-- Allocations to the ultimate "end consumers" will come much later when the "meters" are read.
------
Production: [Injection to storage]
- This was "planned in advance" based on "historical" usage estimates (may want to include price here) but it is not an event that cropped up in the "current week".
- Possibly the "markets" have "no clue" what the weekly Injection will be (personally I tend to doubt it).
-------
If I were a "major player" in the Ng market, I would have someone on the payroll at every one of those "pipeline" companies reading the "flow meters" and reporting in "every day" !!!!!
------
Here, I include the Weather: [You may feel another spot appropriate, and I have ignored/excluded the "eleven year cycle" but I think that would come in with the "historical data".
--------
Here is what "really bothers me" !!!!
Suppose we had a "severe hurricane season" and ABSOLUTELY NO GAS was produced from the Gulf. It seems that those storage facilities are "so huge" that we would never have a supply disruption !!! The producers would just "catch up" when the hurricanes were over ?? It seems we do not have an overall Ng supply deficit if the DOE is starting to permit the "export" of domestically produced Ng !!!

So, I guess I am really "at a loss" at the moment on these rather large swings in the "near term" price of Ng every week !!!

I know this got long ...
But please "throw the darts" !!! This market really "frustrates" me !!!!

Have a great weekend,
Thanks, Lee