Welcome to the TFC Commodity Trading Forum.
Please feel welcome to join in on these informative ongoing discussions about trading futures and commodities.

The Trading Forum is intended for the open discussion of commodities trading. The management of this Forum does not agree or disagree with the ideas exchanged, and does not exert editorial control over the message posted herein. Read and post at your own risk. The risk of loss in trading or commodities can be substantial. We discourage the use of this Forum to promote trading that is acknowledged to be risky. Please note: many links from the Forum lead to pages on other web sites. We cannot take responsibility for nor endorse the information presented on those sites.

TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Backtesting question

I have a question about backtesting and specifically how many days/trades I should backtest. I'll explain what I'm doing and I'd appreciakte some feedback and if somebody could tell me if what I am doing makes sense.

I want to backtest a daytrading system on the E-Mini S&P 500.
I read an article that said that before 2002 the E-Mini S&P had much less volume than now. From 2002 until now the ES has been very liquid.

My testing period will be 2002 until now. Now I will explain my math about the statistics regarding the accuracy of my backtesting so please correct me if I'm wrong.

#1 If I only tested 'half' of this period, 2002 to say mid 2006, then the results would only be 50% accurate, because I would only have tested half of the data available.

#2 If I test 'all' of the period for which the ES has been sufficently liquid 2002 until now,then the results will be 100% accurate because I will have backtested my system on 'all' of the data available.

#3 If after testing 'half' of the period my win ratio is 60%, then I can assume that this 60% win ratio will only be right half of the time.

#4 If after testing my system on 'all' of the data my win ratio is 60%, then I can assume that this 60% win ratio will be right all of the time, 100% accurate.

Of course all of the above assume that the ES will continue to behave as it has in the past.

Do my 4 points sound correct? Or is my math a bit off?

Thanks(:

Messages In This Thread

Backtesting question