Hi Ceejay,
Thanks !!
First, I want to clear this up ...
"As for your paper calls"
What I did was not a market call or anything of the sort. I did call it a "paper trade" and clearly stated that it wasn't really a trade (no stop loss, exit thoughts) but just a "documented starting point" from which to track the performance (gain/loss) of the July and Sept. Ng contracts that were being discussed at the time.

There was a "school of thought" that Ng might start to go up in the shorter term contrary to the "seasonal trend". I had no clue and decided to track it more carefully [again, because my interest was stirred again, but in the past I had concluded that Ng was perfectly capable of "destroying your piggy bank"].

I should mention, that in the past, there have been rather "heated" comments on applying "weather projections" to trading, in particular Ng. I am pleased that those loud argumentative voices have not surfaced and this "study" may quietly proceed.

OK, back to Ng and the "Thursday report" volitility.

You refer to "Injection" and a reliable forcast of CDD.

It is not clear to me how the storage facilities and pipeline distribution to the end consumers actually functions.

I would like to determine (once and for all) if the storage sites are really "distribution hubs" such that all production (injections) goes into storage and comes out the "other side" to the consumers based on demand.

Anyway, the distribution is another interesting problem.

Now back to Injection and CDD.

If weekly "supply/demand" is the "in/out" of the storage facilities as reported on Thursday we have more work to do.

Clearly demand is "unknown" but can be estimated, and the biggest variable is the weather.

On injection, I don't know how "fast" the producers can turn things on/off/up/down based on price [they have to put the stuff somewhere].

We haven't touched on other economic drivers, like the "tax consequences" of year end inventory in Texas and Oklahoma as mentioned in the link Trades posted. Not sure how this relates to Ng though ??

So ..... Onward ....
Lee