The zone of above to well-above average temperatures will contract somewhat the week after next to a region bounded from NYC, southwest to Oklahoma, south through east Texas, across the Gulf coast states and the Southeast. Most of the remainder of the lower 48 can expect temperatures at or near normal except for high elevation areas of Colorado, Wyoming and Montana where it will be cooler than normal. The Pac NW seems to be on a warming trend.

This week, as strong high pressure gets established over the south central states, very warm conditions will spread from Texas and the southern plains into the Midwest, the Ohio valley, and eventually into much of the NE by Friday. For example, Oklahoma City will see average temperatures 10-15 F above normal this week and is likely to break a daily record maximum temperature of 107F on Monday. North of the big ridge, from Minnesota, through the Great Lake states and New England, series of disturbances will keep a risk of showers and thundershowers in the forecast most days although widespread heavy rain is expected only over Minnesota and Wisconsin early this week. South of the ridge thunderstorm frequency should increase over the Gulf coast states as a moist flow from the Gulf of Mexico develops. Arizona can expect the start of the monsoon season this week. Finally, some models hint at a tropical system developing in the western Gulf of Mexico late this week, and this forecast seems a little more believable than others hinting the same earlier in the season.