Hi Ceejay,
OK, I will, but for now, let's re-cap.

Looks like you are calculating the long term average seasonal injection figure.

Seasonal, being that it is for a specific calendar week.

If so, ????

I can see an interest in seasonal price behavior.

If there is any merit to an "average seasonal injection figure" then it says to me that production is very closely tied to consumption, year over year. I may not understand this, but if you can calculate an "expected" injection figure for next week, so can the rest of the world !!!

NOW .... If producers are using that "calculated average seasonal injection figure" to judge/estimate what their production output should be THEN I can see that an unexpected variation in consumption, be it weather, or something else, will cause the build for the week to deviate and give rise to the Thursday morning price gyrations !!!!

So, maybe some of this is starting to make sense !!!

Have to stew on this a bit ....
Thanks, Lee