Hi Wayne, CJ, Hal
Wayne:
Thanks for those comments Wayne. Will come back and post some things that
I have found. Please bear with any "fundamental type comments" that I may make as
I am trying to get a better handle on why this market does what it does !!!
Hal:
An easy one ......
Looking at the futures chain, the OI on the three front contracts is 161k, 211k and 117k.
When July settled, OI was down to about 27k.
Would you say that 27k might be close to the number of contracts actually delivered upon, and
the rest of those higher OI numbers are speculation ????
CeeJay:
Last because I had more to write !!!!
I have read your last posts, and the suggestion that this weeks build may be around 70Bcf.
I have been looking at some industry data. We'll see what Hal comes back with.
If it is speculators moving price based on technical trading data, so be it ........
But if price is being determined on a daily basis by end consumers and speculators using daily
supply demand data, that is another story.
Price dropped a fair amount right at 10 - 10.30 this morning. Maybe that is when the key traders do their thing ??
Maybe you have some thoughts on that ??
I have a suspicion that consumption may be down on a daily basis.
Assuming production remained relatively constant, then price would logically drop on a decrease in demand ??
More later, but I throw out the following ...
Industrial demand (40 % of total) has been going down.
The Nebraska Nuke plant never came off line with the flooding, the other was already down for refueling.
Sounds like the second will be brought back on line once the flooding has subsided. This action will take the
load off of gas fired plants (assuming that is what is providing the power and not coal).
Another Project !! Determine how much Ng is required to replace an average Nuke plant when taken off line.??
I suspect it is enough to be visible in the market.
Enough for now.
Thanks, Lee