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Re: weather, July 14-21 Ng Build est./CeeJay

Hi Ceejay,

Your post for reference:
This build happened in spite of above average temps in nearly every major market...it may have been Trades who mentioned that the week including the 4th was a week of lower demand...store closures...vacationers away from home? Anyway, given the expected warm and increasingly muggy conditions expected during the next 2 weeks, i don't expect to see another build like that. And, yes, the possibility of a gulf tropical storm remains although no signs of one thru the next week at least.
_________

Without support here, a build above 89 was "unexpected".

The dip stick readings for the Thursday report were taken through Friday 7/1 so no Holiday stuff entered into it.

Production has been gradually increasing, in spite of some of the shale articles you may have read.

New York State did introduce some environmental regulatory crap, but that did not impact any
on going operations at least for the short term.

Some Nuclear plants did come back on line.

I think we discussed (caiomichael also commented) that production was unlikely to be throttled on a
short term basis - and I agree with that assessment.

Some industry pundits suggested that temperatures were not quite as high as expected, so
the power burn was lower. But, what does that have to do with the price of beans ??

The pundits missed on their estimate of the EIA "dip stick reading" injection was higher
and the price went down.

But, overall, it is pretty clear. Production likely did not change, so demand went down a bit more
than expected.

Another thing that I do not completely understand.
There is some "storage" on the "consumption side of the pipe" . Apparently they fiddle with that based
on price. So, if price was viewed to be declining further, they may have burned that off (thus storage did not decline)
and those users expect to "re-stock" at a lower price. If that is the case, then the build may be lower than
expected next week !!!!!

An interesting market/industry !!!!
Lee