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Energies
The stock market's surge, one of the strongest nine day price gains since recovering off the 2009 lows, helped lift oil prices. The support came on the heels of the 2nd bailout for Greece going through despite protests. This is a temporary relief that has had a psyhological impact on the market's outlook for the global economy, however I do not believe that it is going to prevent a global recession which will demolish oil prices in coming months. Use this bounce to develop short plays in oil and RBOB gas. Natural gas remains a buy with long term call plays.
Financials
The big stock market rally stalled a bit on Friday, and this relief rally following the Greece bailout has likely spent itself. A quick correction is in order at this technical level. Look for the S&P to hold below 1374, but likely 1354, and offer short plays from the current level. Bonds should see a choppy rally ensue on the anticipated pullback in the stock market. The dollar has been choppy, but held up nicely amid a stock market rally, which had previously been inversely correlated to a bearish dollar. The euro remains in serious jeopardy, and the Greece bailout might be seen as a relief, but the problem is still there - a unified currency structure does not work and the flaws will continue to plague the euro. Simply, a unified currency is only as strong as its weakest link if you are going to hurt the stronger countries to bailout the weaker ones. The Canadian and Australian dollars remain short plays at these exhausted levels - do not expect much more out of these currencies to the upside, and look for the next dollar rally to be the straw that breaks these camels' back. The Japanese yen remains a buy on this minor dip and I continue to stand by my forecast that:
The Japanese Yen futures will hit 140 before 80 or I will quit writing the Weekend Commodities Review...forever.
Grains
Corn's freefall should continue despite last week's dead cat bounce. Look for the WASDE to break these grains and coincide with a stock and oil pullback that could provide a bit of a perfect storm for a bear move in grains this week. Wheat is a value spread buy against corn, while beans remain a strong short with straight deep out of the money puts. The unexpected v-shaped price correction in rough rice should be shorted using near term straight puts.
http://moundreport.com/07-10-2011_files/image003.jpg
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
**Chart courtesy of https://secure.geckosoftware.com
Meats
Cattle looks quite bullish on a short term chart, but I believe the longer term perspective will win out here. The bottom line is that cattle input costs remain high and a bearish global economic outlook will rock the current phenomenally high cattle prices. Hogs are not as bullish, but I do not see much opportunity there to short at the moment.
Metals
Gold and silver continued to show small gains despite what should have been a flight to quality relief selloff following the Greece bailout. Look for a delayed reaction correction throughout the entire metals section starting with a severe silver plunge of $4 or more as early as this week. China's rate hike reinforces the pressure on growth that should handicap copper prices in coming months.
Softs
Coffee's meandering around the $2.60 price point is a bullish technical sign as this market should have been in a freefall, but it is important to note that fundamentally I do not see an argument that would suggest higher prices ahead. Therefore I would take any drop in volatility premium as an opportunity to develop key long term bearish plays in this market.
Cocoa was in a very tight channel and broke out to the upside, exactly the type of sucker's rally fakeout that could signal severe downside for this market in the near term. The only thing that I believe makes a bullish argument in cocoa is the monthly chart trendline support, but the gut is screaming market failure and I highly recommend put plays here. OJ remains a big sell along with sugar. Texas drought has helped to stabilize cotton prices, but don't be fooled into thinking there is another epic rally waiting in the wings here.
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James Mound
www.MoundReport.com
info@moundreport.com
(888) 744-8866
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