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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: tropical update, Ng report/Ceejay
In Response To: tropical update ()

Hi Ceejay,
Well, here we go again !!! Wild Arse Guess time !!!!
More on the guessing game at the end.

Current guestimates are:
from Dow Jones news wire

EIA is expected to report that 76 billion cubic feet
of natural gas was added to storage during the week ended July 8, according to the average
prediction of 17 natural-gas analysts and traders in a Dow Jones Newswires survey.

The survey’s median result was a 77-bcf build, with estimates ranging from a 50-bcf injection
to an 84-bcf build.

NOTICE THE 50 Bcf on the low end !!! There are some that feel the EIA erred on the
high side last week and the adjustment will show up this week. Also with the Holiday last
week, Industrial consumption is likely down, offsetting some of the "power burn" from the
warm/hot weather.

My thought is:
If the build comes in higher than that 76 Bcf that the market likely already has priced in, then
we may see a healthy drop in price tomorrow morning. If it were to come in toward 50 then
it's off to the races, but I'm not betting my piggy bank on that. That is a lot of Air Conditioners
running !!!!

What are your thoughts !!!
I'll post this and do another on what I think I have found on just how these numbers
are arrived at.

Thanks, Lee