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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

tropical update *PIC*

The tropical wave in question is about 800 mi due east of Barbados moving just slightly north of west at about 20 mi/hr. Although it is well organized at elevation, currently only a small area of thunderstorms have developed. Most of the main computer models generally show a weak trough of low pressure entering the eastern Caribbean Friday afternoon and do not indicate further strengthening; save one - the Canadian model, which brings a tropical storm into the Bahamas on Monday. This model tends to develop storms too quickly, which causes them to move too far to the north. So I would discount its solution. Nevertheless there is still lots of potential with this disturbance and i'll continue to post when and if the situation changes significantly.